Archive for January, 2016

Coastal Flooding big risk in “Blizzard”.

January 21, 2016

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DC and inland is expecting a blizzard, in fact the whole DC/Baltimore/Philadelphia/New York city metro area is expecting a blizzard. Some places are expecting two feet of snow, others more or less. The computer models are in agreement.

Will it be a blizzard in Seaside Heights?  Maybe is the answer. Saturday’s temperatures are expected to hover around freezing for at least part of the day, and now rain/snow is forecast for the event at this time here on the island by the Weather Channel.  Accuweather is predicting all snow. So could it rain at times, and snow at others? Probably. Winds are expected to HOWL at 50-plus miles per hour, making any snow a white-out. Seaside Heights remains in the 6-inch category, possibly, but that could change either way. Drifts during a blizzard are hard to believe. If you have not lived through a blizzard in Seaside Heights, it’s not for the faint of heart, that’s for sure. Put your vehicle in a secure place.  I remember clearly the Blizzards of 1978, 1983, 1996, 2003 and others. The Blizzard of 1983 saw thundersnow in Seaside Heights. The Blizzard of ’96 happened on a Saturday 20 winters ago. If this looks like even half of those, it’s a big deal. All rain would make our lives easier.

Seaside Heights Mayor Dr. Anthony Vaz said, “We are prepared as we possibly can. We all have Sandy on our minds.”, in a Thursday a.m. interview. The Mayor said that all equipment, and barricades are set. The Seaside Heights Police Department Chief Thomas J. Boyd, The Emergency Management team headed by William Hibbel, and The Public Works team headed by William Rumbolo, are ready.  As stated yesterday, the Borough’s reverse 9-1-1 system has already been activated once, and it will be utilized as needed. Station 44, The Seaside Heights Volunteer Fire Department will have a crew on standby during the event if there is any need to evacuate. Any evacuation of the island would be hampered by the inbound bridge, and alternate plans using Route 35 might be advisable. All vehicles must be removed off the streets for plowing and flooding safety. If anyone needs more information, the Mayor said they could call Seaside Heights Borough Hall at 732-793-9100, or the Police Department at 732-793-1800 for non-emergency.

But what should really be the headline for Seaside Heights is the forecast for coastal flooding. News outlets have said, “Worst since Sandy.”, but that only means this is the largest classic Nor’Easter event since the hurricane, with “fetch and windspeed increasing”, according to Jim Cantore of The Weather Channel, who called and compared it to a tropical storm.  The National Weather Service has issued a watch for “Moderate to Major Tidal Flooding” which could cause minor or moderate property damage. Seaside Heights was a place The Weather Channel mentioned.

Wunderground said, “There is more than snow in the works with this storm. The ferocious dynamics at play during the storm’s height could produce winds of 40-50 mph or more, which would lead to blizzard conditions and huge drifts. On top of that, strong onshore winds may produce waves up to 20 feet and major coastal flooding, especially from New Jersey to the Delmarva Peninsula. The full moon on Saturday will only add to the risk of significant flood impacts. In addition, sea-surface temperatures running 5 – 7°F above average should keep the offshore surface air relatively warm, allowing strong winds aloft to mix to the surface more readily than usual for a midwinter nor’easter, as noted by the NWS/Philadelphia office in a weather discussion on Tuesday night. The risk of damaging coastal flooding will need to be watched with the same vigilance as the potential for crippling snowfall just inland.”

Another forecast said for Saturday, “”Windy. Rain and snow in the morning will transition to mainly rain in the afternoon. High 37F. Winds NE at 40 to 60 mph. Chance of precip 100%. Snow accumulating 1 to 3 inches. Winds could occasionally gust over 80 mph”.

 

 

Seaside Heights Officials Warn of Winter Storm…

January 20, 2016

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As Ocean County was added as under a Winter Storm Watch for Winter Storm Jonas, a.k.a. The DC/Baltimore Blizzard or other names, Seaside Heights officials warned of the storm by its reverse 9-1-1 Emergency Management tool.

WHEN:  The storm is expected to begin late afternoon/early evening Friday January 22nd, and end sometime Saturday January 23rd.

PREPARATION:  Now is the time to get the bread and milk!  A stock of food is a good idea to have in your home, at least enough for a few days. Seaside Heights IS NOT prone to power outages with the sophisticated electric supply lines that run into the Borough. During power outages however, gas utilities and landline telephones should still work. Cell phones can be charged in vehicles. The more you depend on electric, the more effect it will have. But again, the power seldom goes out in the Borough.  Other things to think about having/getting:  Shovels, rock salt or deicer, snowblower, gloves, hat, scarf, boots, and things that will help when we dig out of whatever Mother Nature does or does not throw our way.

PARKING: All vehicles have to be removed from the street in Seaside Heights during snow events to facilitate plowing. Parking is available at the Grant Avenue lot across from Breakwater Beach, or on other private property. Cars left on the street could be ticketed or towed.

HOW MUCH SNOW?  That’s debatable, especially along the shoreline, where it is notorious for a rain event when most every other place gets snow.  In Seaside Heights, an island out in the middle of the Atlantic, the warmth of the ocean and the bay are a factor to keep temperatures sometimes above 32 degrees. So that question remains. Most weather forecasts are calling for enough cold to make it an all-snow event. Feet of snow are being forecast inland far to our south and west, but Seaside Heights was in about the 6-10 inch area at the last look, BUT THAT CAN CHANGE EITHER WAY.

WHY PETE IS AGGRAVATED: I normally go to Florida this time of year to avoid this kind of weather.

PLEASE CHECK BACK, as more information will become clear as the event gets closer and closer, only 48 hours away at the time of this writing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pete speaks too soon: Seaside Heights Blizzard possible!

January 20, 2016

Just Sunday, I said that the NOAA and Accuweather had predicted above normal temperatures during this climatology coldest time of the year. Just then, a snowfall of several inches blanketed Seaside Heights, and cold, blustery weather came to the Town That Fun Built. It has been warmer than normal, despite the below average temps of this week. Normal is about a daytime high of 40 degrees. But we could be frigid, and we are not. Additionally, the NOAA/Accuweather predictions said wetter than normal, due to El Nino, and El Nino year blizzards are legendary.

Now there’s nothing but talk of a big blizzard. Now will it be a blizzard or a dud?  That is always the big question.  I am looking at the weather closely, and will update the blog as I get more information and can make a valid conclusion, and I will give my prediction only after that.

The Weather Channel is calling the storm, “Jonas”. I’m no fan of naming non-tropical storms, but we may hear this term applied to this event despite my feelings on it.
Typical to El Nino-type storms, Jonas came from the west, from the warmer waters of the Pacific. This promises a bunch of moisture, and the likely set-up of a classic “Nor’Easter” off the New Jersey Coast.  So, in addition to heavy snow, or even if we get rain, the storm alone will very likely bring heavy surf and stiff wind from the Northeast. The tides will have to be watched. This could be the heaviest coastal storm we’ve had since Hurricane Sandy. This event is not Sandy, but anxiety is heavy in this area when storms and tides are in question.

Right now, the complex weather computers, mainly Florida State’s GSF and the European model, are differing on the exact place of the heaviest snowfall.  As the days get closer, and the storm forms in the predicted way, the more accurate the computer models will become.  Weather balloons are being sent repeatedly into the precursor to Jonas, in an attempt to feed more information into the initialization of the models. Remember the Euro predicted both Hurricane Sandy to hit us in 2012, and Hurricane Joaquin to miss us in 2015. The runs of both models are taken into consideration, and in general terms, a blend of the models are used. That’s why they say storms could either hit us or miss us. All forecasts try to match the timing, placement of the storm in comparison to computer possibilities and climatology. Despite all the technological advancements, Mother Nature is unpredictable at times.

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CLICK THE PHOTO ABOVE FOR THE LATEST VIDEO FROM accuweather.com.

The Weather Channel’s 10 Day Forecast:

 TODAY
Jan 20

34°F 24°

mostly cloudy

Mostly Cloudy

0%

WNW 9 mph

52%

THU

Jan 21

35° 22°

mostly sunny

Mostly Sunny

0%

NW 12 mph

51%

FRI

Jan 22

33° 29°

mostly cloudy

Mostly Cloudy

0%

N 5 mph

48%

SAT

Jan 23

37° 28°

rain snow

Rain/Snow/Wind

100%<1 in

NE 38 mph

78%

SUN

Jan 24

38° 21°

snow

AM Snow/Wind

90%1-3 in

N 27 mph

65%

MON

Jan 25

40° 32°

partly cloudy

Partly Cloudy

0%

W 6 mph

54%

TUE

Jan 26

47° 32°

partly cloudy

Partly Cloudy

20%

SW 9 mph

69%

WED

Jan 27

41° 26°

partly cloudy

Partly Cloudy

20%

W 14 mph

62%

THU

Jan 28

39° 28°

mostly sunny

Mostly Sunny

20%

WNW 7 mph

63%

FRI

Jan 29

40° 27°

mostly sunny

Mostly Sunny

20%

W 17 mph

64%

 

 

Pete’s Videos reach 1.1 million views…

January 17, 2016

If he had a dollar for every viewer. Pete has been posting videos on youtube.com for 10 years about Seaside Heights for the vast part, since 2006, and has garnered over 1,105,000 viewers, according to youtube stats. Pete has 477 subscribers, and over 150 videos. The most popular videos: Seaside Heights 1960: The Town That Fun Built, with about 25oK views, and the Walking Tour Post-Hurricane Sandy, with a little short of 100K views.

CLICK HERE TO GO TO PETE’S YOUTUBE CHANNEL!

SHPD Snowman…

January 17, 2016

IMG_0867PETE saw this snowman while up on the Boardwalk during the snowstorm.

IMG_0870PATROL OFFICERS Andrew Leahy, Rebecca Sayegh, Michael Geiger made the extra officer patroling the Boardwalk for the night.