Pete speaks too soon: Seaside Heights Blizzard possible!

Just Sunday, I said that the NOAA and Accuweather had predicted above normal temperatures during this climatology coldest time of the year. Just then, a snowfall of several inches blanketed Seaside Heights, and cold, blustery weather came to the Town That Fun Built. It has been warmer than normal, despite the below average temps of this week. Normal is about a daytime high of 40 degrees. But we could be frigid, and we are not. Additionally, the NOAA/Accuweather predictions said wetter than normal, due to El Nino, and El Nino year blizzards are legendary.

Now there’s nothing but talk of a big blizzard. Now will it be a blizzard or a dud?  That is always the big question.  I am looking at the weather closely, and will update the blog as I get more information and can make a valid conclusion, and I will give my prediction only after that.

The Weather Channel is calling the storm, “Jonas”. I’m no fan of naming non-tropical storms, but we may hear this term applied to this event despite my feelings on it.
Typical to El Nino-type storms, Jonas came from the west, from the warmer waters of the Pacific. This promises a bunch of moisture, and the likely set-up of a classic “Nor’Easter” off the New Jersey Coast.  So, in addition to heavy snow, or even if we get rain, the storm alone will very likely bring heavy surf and stiff wind from the Northeast. The tides will have to be watched. This could be the heaviest coastal storm we’ve had since Hurricane Sandy. This event is not Sandy, but anxiety is heavy in this area when storms and tides are in question.

Right now, the complex weather computers, mainly Florida State’s GSF and the European model, are differing on the exact place of the heaviest snowfall.  As the days get closer, and the storm forms in the predicted way, the more accurate the computer models will become.  Weather balloons are being sent repeatedly into the precursor to Jonas, in an attempt to feed more information into the initialization of the models. Remember the Euro predicted both Hurricane Sandy to hit us in 2012, and Hurricane Joaquin to miss us in 2015. The runs of both models are taken into consideration, and in general terms, a blend of the models are used. That’s why they say storms could either hit us or miss us. All forecasts try to match the timing, placement of the storm in comparison to computer possibilities and climatology. Despite all the technological advancements, Mother Nature is unpredictable at times.

Screen Shot 2016-01-20 at 5.23.45 AM
CLICK THE PHOTO ABOVE FOR THE LATEST VIDEO FROM accuweather.com.

The Weather Channel’s 10 Day Forecast:

 TODAY
Jan 20

34°F 24°

mostly cloudy

Mostly Cloudy

0%

WNW 9 mph

52%

THU

Jan 21

35° 22°

mostly sunny

Mostly Sunny

0%

NW 12 mph

51%

FRI

Jan 22

33° 29°

mostly cloudy

Mostly Cloudy

0%

N 5 mph

48%

SAT

Jan 23

37° 28°

rain snow

Rain/Snow/Wind

100%<1 in

NE 38 mph

78%

SUN

Jan 24

38° 21°

snow

AM Snow/Wind

90%1-3 in

N 27 mph

65%

MON

Jan 25

40° 32°

partly cloudy

Partly Cloudy

0%

W 6 mph

54%

TUE

Jan 26

47° 32°

partly cloudy

Partly Cloudy

20%

SW 9 mph

69%

WED

Jan 27

41° 26°

partly cloudy

Partly Cloudy

20%

W 14 mph

62%

THU

Jan 28

39° 28°

mostly sunny

Mostly Sunny

20%

WNW 7 mph

63%

FRI

Jan 29

40° 27°

mostly sunny

Mostly Sunny

20%

W 17 mph

64%

 

 

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